吉林省中部粮食主产区城乡关联的空间分析

基于24个空间单元的统计数据和实地调查资料,运用BP神经网络模型和ESDA方法,在GIS技术支持下,定量评价吉林省中部粮食主产区城乡关联度,并分析各县域城乡关联状态与空间差异。研究结果表明:(1)区域城乡综合关联Moran ’s I指数仅为-0.1205,表明各县域城乡关联呈分散状态;经济、社会和基本建设非均衡发展是制约城乡协调发展的关键因素。(2)区域城乡关联的区域差异明显,地级市辖区城乡关联性显著高于各县(县级市);经济、社会和基本建设关联性分别呈现"圈层"、"十字型"和"块状"的空间结构。(3)区域城乡关联表现出较弱的集聚趋势。空间差异较小的县域主要沿哈大线呈带状分布,空间差异较大的县主要分布在5个地级市辖区和东南部低山丘陵区;经济、社会和基本建设关联性分别表现为弱扩散、强极化和强扩散状态。

Spatial analysis of urban-rural association to the major grain-producing areas of central Jilin Province

The central Jilin Province is one of the most important old industrial bases and major grain-producing areas in China, where the urban-rural development has its typical regional background and uniqueness. It is great practical significant and referenced value to promote the coordinated development of urban-rural system and to establish new urban-rural pattern by discussing the associativity and its regional difference of urban-rural areas. Based on statistical data and surveys of 24 spatial units, by the method of BP neural network, ESDA and GIS, the urban-rural association degrees in the major grain-producing areas of central Jilin Province were evaluated quantitatively, and the spatial relationship and regional difference were also analysed in this paper. The results are shown as follows. First, Moran's I of urban-rural association is -0.1205, which means the regional urban-rural association presents a weaker diffused trend; and the unbalanced development of economy, society and infrastructure is the key factor restricting the harmonious development of urban-rural relationship. Second, the spatial difference of urban-rural development is obvious, and the associativity of prefecture-level municipal districts are significantly superior to county-level cities, and the relationships of economy, society and infrastructure are demonstrated respectively in the spatial structure of "spheres", "cross-type" and "massive". Third, the urban-rural association takes on a weaker accumulated trend as a whole, and lower discrepant regions are mainly distributed along the Harbin-Dalian railway line, but higher discrepant regions are mainly distributed in the low mountains and hills of southeastern regions and the five prefecture-level municipal districts. Moreover, the associativity of economy, society and infrastructure are demonstrating respectively the trend of weaker diffusion, stronger proliferation and stronger diffusion.