The effect of possible climate change on natural groundwater recharge based on a simple model: a study of four karstic aquifers in SE Spain

The study presented in this paper constitutes an initial approach to the problematic task of evaluating the effects of possible climate change on natural water recharge to aquifers. To estimate such effects, a purpose-designed mathematical model termed Estimation of Recharge in Over-exploited Aquifers (ERAS) has been used. It enables to simulate the monthly water recharge to an aquifer, provided that prior knowledge of the exploitation to which it is subjected and the variation caused by these two actions on the piezometric level of the aquifer is available. The basic data required for its application are: precipitation, temperature, groundwater extraction, stored groundwater surface and storage coefficient. The main advantage presented by this model is its independence of the mechanism by which water is displaced through the ground and within the unsaturated zone. The ERAS code was applied to four over-exploited karstic aquifers in Alto Vinalopó (Alicante, Spain) with the goal of generating a synthesized series of values for natural groundwater recharge in each of the aquifers for the 100 years of the twentieth century. Each series thus obtained after being grouped into decades was subjected to statistical processing, which revealed that in every case a logarithmically decreasing trend was present.