2016年汛期中国降水极端特征及与1998年对比

本文利用国家气象信息中心提供的1961—2016年全国2341个气象观测站日和小时降水量资料，分析了2016年中国汛期降水的极端特征，并与1998年进行比较。主要结论如下：2016年汛期全国平均降水量为1961年以来历史同期最多，共有140站汛期降水量突破1961年以来历史同期极大值，有112站出现历史次极大值，比1998年分别偏多54和47站。1998年降水极值主要出现在东北和长江中上游地区，2016年主要出现在华东地区，而且范围更加集中。共出现6972站次暴雨，其中大暴雨1251站次，为1961年以来最多。44次大范围暴雨过程持续时间达90 d，总体呈现“中间强、前后弱”的特征。有417站出现日降水量极端事件，其中88站突破历史纪录，创1961年以来新高；最大小时降水量共有113站突破历史极值，比1998年偏多29站。从空间分布来看，日降水量极端事件2016年主要位于华东和华北地区，1998年集中在中部地区；破纪录小时降水2016年主要在西部地区，而1998年东部地区更为突出。

Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation in China During the 2016 Flood Season and Comparison with the 1998 Situation

Based on the daily and hourly precipitation data of 2341 meteorological observation stations from 1961 to 2016, this paper analyzed the precipitation extreme features in China in the 2016 flood season and also did comparison with the situation in 1998. The main results are as follows. The average precipitation in 2016 is the most since 1961, and the accumulated rainfall of 140 stations exceeded historical records, with 112 stations having the second historical maximum values. These stations are 54 and 47 more respectively than the stations in 1998. The extreme precipitation in 1998 mainly occurred in Northeast China and the middle and upper reaches of the Yangtze River, but in 2016 it occurred mainly in East China and was more concentrated. Totally, 6972 stations had torrential rains, of which extremely heavy rains occurred at 1251 stations, which are the most since 1961. The large scale torrential rains happened 44 times, lasting for 90 days and showing the characteristics of being intense in middle, and weak before and after the torrential rain processes. There were extreme events of daily precipitation at 417 stations, of which 88 stations broke the historic records. The hourly maximum precipitation at 113 stations broke the historical records, with 29 stations more than in 1998. The spatial distribution of daily precipitation extremes was mainly in East China and North China in 2016, but in central China in 1998. The hourly record precipitation was mainly in western China in 2016, while it concentrated in eastern China in 1998.