1644—1911年广东省旱涝多时间尺度变化特征及影响因子分析

建立清代1644—1911年广东的旱涝指数序列，采用滑动t检验、完备总体经验模态函数分析了清代广东旱涝的突变特征和多时间尺度周期性特征。结果表明，清代广东旱涝指数整体较平稳，呈现先明显增加后减少、后略微增加的趋势。旱涝指数序列具有多个跃变点，且有年际尺度4.2 a和7.8 a，年代际尺度11.6 a、15.2 a、36.5 a和70.1 a，世纪尺度130.3 a左右的周期。发现广东旱涝有多个周期与太阳黑子相对数序列及东亚季风指数序列周期接近，故用交叉小波分析发现广东旱涝指数序列与太阳黑子相对数序列在0~6 a、7~8 a和11~16 a等多个时间尺度具有强凝聚性共振周期，与东亚夏季风指数序列在4~8 a和25~45 a等多个时间尺度具有强凝聚性共振周期。 

ANALYSIS OF THE CHARACTERISTICS OF DROUGHT AND FLOOD IN MULTIPLE TIME SCALES AND INFLUENCING FACTORS IN GUANGDONG FROM 1644 TO 1911

In view of global change and disaster increase, it is necessary to study the characteristics and influencing factors of climate disasters during the historical period. In this paper, the drought and flood index series of Guangdong from 1644—1911 was established. A sliding t-test was used to determine the mutation points and Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition was used to analyze the periodicity of the sequence on different timescales. Cross-wavelet analysis was used to explore the relative of sunspots and the East Asian summer monsoon with the change of drought and flood in Guangdong.The results show that the drought and flood index of Guangdong in the Qing Dynasty is generally stable, showing a marked increase, then a decrease, and then a slight increase.Drought and flood index sequence has multiple transition points and has interannual scale periods of 4.2 a and 7.8 a, interdecadal scale periods of 11.6 a, 15.2 a, 36.5 a and 70.1 a and century scale period of about 130.3 a. It is found that the periods of drought and flood in Guangdong are close to those of sunspots and East Asian monsoon. So the influence of sunspots activity and East Asian summer monsoon on the variation of drought and flood in Guangdong was mainly discussed by cross-wavelet analysis. It is found that the sequence of drought and flood index in Guangdong has strong cohesive resonance periods at 0~6 a, 7~8 a, 11~16 a and other time scales with the sunspots relative number sequence, and also has strong cohesive resonance cycle with the sequence of the East Asian summer monsoon at multiple time scales such as 4~8 a and 25~45 a.