| Seismic Inventory Simulation and Conformance Test Based on the Monte Carlo Method——A Case Study of the Fenhe-Weihe Belt |
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| 引用本文： | Shao Xiaoyi,Wang Xiaoqing,Dou Aixi,Yuan Xiaoxiang. Seismic Inventory Simulation and Conformance Test Based on the Monte Carlo Method——A Case Study of the Fenhe-Weihe Belt[J]. 中国地震研究, 2018, 32(4): 533-548 |
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| 作者姓名： | Shao Xiaoyi Wang Xiaoqing Dou Aixi Yuan Xiaoxiang |
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| 作者单位： | Institute of Earthquake Forecasting, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100036, China;Key Laboratory of Active Tectonics and Volcano, Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100029, China,Institute of Earthquake Forecasting, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100036, China,Institute of Earthquake Forecasting, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100036, China,Institute of Earthquake Forecasting, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100036, China |
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| 基金项目： | This project was supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (No.2017YFB0504104). |
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| 摘 要： | Artificial earthquake catalogue simulation is one of the ways to effectively improve the incompleteness of the existing earthquake catalogue,the scarcity of large earthquake records and the improvement of seismological research.Based on the Poisson distribution model of seismic activity and the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency relationship, the Monte Carlo method which can describe the characteristics of the stochastic nature and the physical experiment process is used.This paper simulates the future seismic catalogues of the Fenhe-Weihe seismic belt of different durations and conducts statistical tests on them. The analysis shows that the simulation catalogue meets the set seismic activity parameters and meets the Poisson distribution hypothesis,which can obtain a better simulated earthquake catalogues that meets the seismic activity characteristics.According to the simulated earthquake catalogues,future earthquake trends in this region are analyzed to provide reference for seismic hazard analysis.
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| 关 键 词： | Monte Carlo method Simulated earthquake catalogues Seismic activity Fenhe-Weihe seismic belt |
| 收稿时间： | 2017-08-10 |
| 修稿时间： | 2018-02-12 |
Seismic Inventory Simulation and Conformance Test Based on the Monte Carlo Method-A Case Study of the Fenhe-Weihe Belt |
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| Shao Xiaoyi,Wang Xiaoqing,Dou Aixia and Yuan Xiaoxiang. Seismic Inventory Simulation and Conformance Test Based on the Monte Carlo Method-A Case Study of the Fenhe-Weihe Belt[J]. Earthquake Research in China, 2018, 32(4): 533-548 |
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| Authors: | Shao Xiaoyi Wang Xiaoqing Dou Aixia Yuan Xiaoxiang |
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| Affiliation: | Institute of Earthquake Forecasting, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100036, China;Key Laboratory of Active Tectonics and Volcano, Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100029, China,Institute of Earthquake Forecasting, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100036, China,Institute of Earthquake Forecasting, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100036, China and Institute of Earthquake Forecasting, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100036, China |
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| Abstract: | Artificial earthquake catalogue simulation is one of the ways to effectively improve the incompleteness of the existing earthquake catalogue,the scarcity of large earthquake records and the improvement of seismological research.Based on the Poisson distribution model of seismic activity and the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency relationship, the Monte Carlo method which can describe the characteristics of the stochastic nature and the physical experiment process is used.This paper simulates the future seismic catalogues of the Fenhe-Weihe seismic belt of different durations and conducts statistical tests on them. The analysis shows that the simulation catalogue meets the set seismic activity parameters and meets the Poisson distribution hypothesis,which can obtain a better simulated earthquake catalogues that meets the seismic activity characteristics.According to the simulated earthquake catalogues,future earthquake trends in this region are analyzed to provide reference for seismic hazard analysis. |
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| Keywords: | Monte Carlo method Simulated earthquake catalogues Seismic activity Fenhe-Weihe seismic belt |
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