唐山区域概率地震危险性研究

依据历史地震重演和构造类比原则对唐山地区进行潜在震源区划分,共确定出5个对研究区影响较大的潜在震源区。在确定地震活动性参数和地震动衰减关系后,将研究区网格化成60个均匀的独立场地单元,计算每个场地单元未来可能遭受相应超越概率的地震动峰值加速度;通过插值分析,将研究区原有地震区划中的基岩峰值加速度等值线间隔由0.05 g进一步细化为0.01 g;得到研究区50年超越概率为10%的基岩水平地震动峰值加速度分布图,表明唐山8.0级潜在震源区对研究区未来影响最大。

Study on Probabilistic Seismic Risk in Tangshan Area

According to the principle of historical earthquake recurrence and tectonic analogy, the potential source areas in Tangshan area are divided, and five potential source areas which have great influence on the study area are identified. After determining the seismicity parameters and ground motion attenuation relationship, the Tangshan area is meshed into 60 uniform independent site units, and the peak acceleration of ground motion that each site unit may suffer from and the corresponding exceeding probability in the future are calculated. Through interpolation analysis,the interval of peak acceleration isoline of bedrock in the original seismic zoning in the study area is further refined from 0.05 g to 0.01 g. The distribution map of peak acceleration of bedrock horizontal ground motion with a 50-year exceedance probability of 10% shows that the potential source area of Tangshan M8.0 has the greatest impact on the study area.in the future.