倾斜扰动与短临地震预报

依据丽江、云龙、云县、保山、通海等台水平摆倾斜仪原始记录图资料，发现震前均存在倾斜扰动。从震源机制，岩石力学角度出发，认为倾斜扰动其本质就是微破裂、粘滑现象，是大震前有效的前兆，这些震兆信息被不同于地震仪固有频率特性的水平摆倾斜仪记录到。把这些特征同震源区岩体紧密联系起来，探讨震前孕震体变化过程与机理和短临地震预报的有效途径。

Tilt Disturbance and Short- impending Earthquake Prediction

Tilt disturbance was discovered before earthquakes in initial recording diagrams of horizontal tiltmeters from Lijiang,Yunlong,Yunxian,Baoshan and Tonghai stations.Starting from focal mechanism and rock mechanics,it is considered that lilt disturbance is intrinsically micro-rupture and stick-slip phenomena and effective precursors,which were recorded by horizontal tilt meters different to seismograph with inherent frequency.Combining the features with rock bodies in focal regions,approach to variation course of seismogenic body and mechanism before earthquake and effective way of short-impending earthquake prediction is made.