| Verification of a Similar Cycle Prediction for the Ascending and Peak Phases of Solar Cycle 23 |
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| 引用本文： | Jia-Long Wang Jian-Cun Gong 等. Verification of a Similar Cycle Prediction for the Ascending and Peak Phases of Solar Cycle 23[J]. 中国天文和天体物理学报, 2002, 2(5): 396-398 |
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| 作者姓名： | Jia-Long Wang Jian-Cun Gong 等 |
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| 作者单位： | Jia-Long Wang，Jian-Cun Gong，Si-Qing Liu，Gui-Ming Le，Yan-Ben Han and Jing-Lan Sun1 National Astronomical Observatories，Chinese Academy of Sciences，Beijing 1000122 Center for Space Science and Applied Research，Chinese Academy of Sciences，Beijing 100080 |
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| 基金项目： | This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 4999-0451 and 10073013)，Space Environment Forecast Center, CSSAR, CAS. |
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| 摘 要： | Reviews of long-term predictions of solar cycles have shown that a precise prediction with a lead time of 2 years or more of a solar cycle remains an unsolved problem. We used a simple method, the method of similar cycles, to make long-term predictions of not only the maximum amplitude but also the smoothed monthly mean sunspot number for every month of Solar Cycle 23. We verify and compare our prediction with the latest available observational results.
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| 关 键 词： | 太阳活动周期 预报技术 太阳黑子 太阳观测 |
Verification of a Similar Cycle Prediction for the Ascending and Peak Phases of Solar Cycle 23 |
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| Jia-Long Wang,Jian-Cun Gong,Si-Qing Liu,Gui-Ming Le,Yan-Ben Han,Jing-Lan Sun. Verification of a Similar Cycle Prediction for the Ascending and Peak Phases of Solar Cycle 23[J]. Chinese Journal of Astronomy and Astrophysics, 2002, 2(5): 396-398 |
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| Authors: | Jia-Long Wang Jian-Cun Gong Si-Qing Liu Gui-Ming Le Yan-Ben Han Jing-Lan Sun |
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| Affiliation: | [1]NationalAstronomicalObservatories,ChineseAcademyofSciences,Beijing100012 [2]CenterforSpaceScienceandAppliedResearch,ChineseAcademyofSciences,Beijing100080 |
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| Abstract: | Reviews of long-term predictions of solar cycles have shown that a precise prediction with a lead time of 2 years or more of a solar cycle remains an unsolved problem.We used a simple method,the method of similar cycles,to make long-term predictions of not only the maximum amplitude but also the smoothed monthly mean sunspot number for every month of Solar Cycle 23.We verify and compare our prediction with the latest available observational results. |
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| Keywords: | Sun: sunspots - solar-terrestrial relations |
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