中国城市私人汽车发展的时空特征及影响因素

选取中国235 个地级以上城市为样本,研究了1990-2009 年中国城市私人汽车拥有量演变的时空特征,并选取了9 个解释变量,使用1995-2009 年的面板数据,建立面板数据模型量化各影响因素的贡献率,分析各因素对城市私人汽车拥有量的作用机制。研究结果表明:① 中国城市私人汽车的发展呈现出一定的阶段性特点,并具有明显的空间集聚及区域分异特征;② 中国城市私人汽车发展的空间差异呈先增大后缩小的倒“U”形变动轨迹;2000 年后,中国城市私人汽车发展的空间差异出现了地带间趋异而地带内趋同的现象;③ 经济因素是私人汽车拥有量的决定性因素,私人汽车拥有量随人均收入的发展呈现出“S”形增长,城市化水平对私人汽车拥有量具有显著正效应,但对特大及巨大城市却产生了不显著的负效应;④ 城市空间扩张带来的城市规模增加会导致城市私人交通工具使用需求增大,当城市人口规模达到一定的临界值以上后,城市人口密度的增加能抑制私人汽车拥有量的增加;⑤ 城市公共交通及出租车的服务能力对私人汽车的增长有抑制作用,但并不显著,且随着城市规模的扩大,城市公共交通发展对私人汽车增长的抑制作用逐渐增强。

The Spatio-temporal Variations of Urban Private Car Ownership in China and Their Influencing Factors

Based on the data of 235 cities in China,this paper explored the spatio-temporal variations of urban private car ownership in China from 1990 to 2009.Then,selecting 10 explanatory variables and building panel data model,this paper analyzed the factors determining the growth in urban private car ownership in China,and also quantified the relative importance of each explanatory variable to private car ownership growth.The empirical results are shown as follows.(1)The development of urban private car ownership presented a phasic variation characteristic,and had significant spatial agglomeration and regional differentiation.(2)Spatial disparities of private car ownership increased first and then decreased,presenting an inverted U-shaped pattern.Since 2000,inter-regional spatial disparities of private car ownership have decreased,while intra-regional disparities have increased.(3)Economic factors were the primary determinants of private car ownership.The variation of private car ownership presented an S-shaped curve with income increases. Urbanization level has significantly positive effect on private car ownership,while it has negative effectin metropolises and mega-cities.(4)The rise of city scale with urban spatial expansion would lead to increased demand for private vehicles use.Increases of urban population density can inhibit the rapid increase of private car ownership.(5)The development of public transportation and taxi can inhibit the increase of the number of private cars in Chinese cities to a certain degree,but not notable.With the expansion of city scale,the inhibiting effect of the development of public transportation on the increase of the quantity of private cars increased.