1999-2007 年中国粮食安全的关键影响因素

选取耕地保护“新政”时期的1999-2007 年为研究时段,以耕地面积与粮食产量变化的分歧原因—耕地生产力变化为切入点,通过比较分析、空间与计量分析探寻粮食安全的关键影响因素。结果表明:农民种粮积极性变化决定着耕地集约利用是影响粮食安全的关键;2003-2007 年农民种粮积极性的持续提高主要来自市场粮价的上涨;粮食直补仅在开始实施的年份激发了农民对种粮收益的预期。此外,本文从提高农民种粮积极性、优化粮食生产投入及改进耕地保护模式3方面,提出了耕地保护发展的政策建议。

Key Influencing Factors of Food Security Guarantee in China during 1999-2007

Exploring the key influencing factors of food security guarantee during the typical period is of significance for the development of cultivated land protection and agricultural policy.This paper aims at exploring the factors between 1999 and 2007 which was in the new period of cultivated land protection administration.Methods such as comparison,spatial and econometric analysis are used to analyze the change in cultivated land productivity which was the cause of the disparity between cultivated land area and grain output changes.Results show that farmers’willingness to grow grain which determines cultivated land use intensity is the key factor.The sustained improvement of the willingness in 2003-2007 was mainly resulted from the rise of grain market price.Meanwhile,direct subsidy merely inspired farmers’anticipation for the profit of grain growing at the beginning years of implementing this policy.In addition,suggestions on the development of cultivated land protection are proposed involving improvement of farmers’willingness to grow grain,optimization of inputs in grain growing and improvement of cultivated land protection models.