中国能源消费增长特征及影响因素分析

以煤炭消费为主、总量增长迅速、结构演进缓慢、使用效率低下使得中国目前能源消费调控问题面临诸多困难。本文使用多元回归模型和通径分析法确定了中国能源消费增长的主要因子及各因子的作用机理，结果发现：影响中国能源消费的主要因素按照影响程度依次为经济增长、城市化水平、对外贸易、人口总量、能源消费结构及能源利用效率，其中经济增长、人口规模扩大是直接推动中国能源消费增长的原因，而城市化水平和对外贸易规模则通过间接作用推动能源消费增长，能源消费结构的改善和能源利用效率的提高表面上看起来会引发能源消费增加，但是其间接影响都是负的，从而使得这两个因素整体上表现为减缓了能源消费增长。

Characteristics of Energy Consumption Growth and Influencing Factors in China

China’s energy consumption management is confronting great difficulties be-cause of its irrationally consumption structure, rapid increase ratio, slow evolvement struc-ture and low energy efficiency. This paper takes use of Stepwise multiple regression and Path analysis to ascertain the main influencing factors of energy consumption growth, the result indicates： main influencing factors include economic growth, urbanization level, for-eign trade scale, population scale, energy consumption structure and energy consumption efficiency according effect degree. Among them, economic and population growth drive the energy consumption directly, urbanization level and foreign trade scale drive the ener-gy consumption indirectly, and energy consumption structure and efficiency will promote the energy consumption growth on the surface, however, their indirect influence is nega-tive, which makes energy consumption structure and efficiency slow down the energy growth in the whole.