An empirical study of the economic effects of climate change on world agriculture

The economic effects of a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration on world agriculture under two alternative crop response scenarios are empirically estimated. These effects include both changes in the prices of agricultural commodities as a result of changes in domestic agricultural yields, and changes in economic welfare following altered world patterns of consumption and production of agricultural commodities. Under both scenarios, with a few exceptions, the effects on national economic welfare are found to be quite modest. However, prices of agricultural commodities are estimated to rise considerably under the more pessimistic scenario. Increased agricultural prices reduce consumer surplus and diminish the benefits from climate change that some countries with predicted positive yield effects would otherwise receive.Authorship is equally shared. Reilly and Tobey are with the Resources and Technology Division, Economic Research Service, United States Department of Agriculture. Kane is with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce. We are grateful for the research assistance of Rhonda Bucklin, and the thoughtful comments of three anonymous reviewers. The views expressed in this paper are the authors' own and do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Department of Agriculture or the U.S. Department of Commerce.