Toward a Differential Calculus for Temporal Map Analysis

Investigators in many fields are analyzing temporal change in spatial data. Such analyses are typically conducted by comparing the value of some metric (e. g., area, contagion, or diversity indices) measured at time T₁ with the value of the same metric measured at time T₂ . These comparisons typically include the use of simple interpolation models to estimate the value of the metric of interest at points in time between observations, followed by applications of differential calculus to investigate the rates at which the metric is changing. Unfortunately, these techniques treat the values of the metrics being analyzed as if they were observed values, when in fact the metrics are derived from more fundamental spatial data. The consequence of treating metrics as observed values is a significant reduction in the degrees of freedom in spatial change over time. This results in an oversimplified view of spatio-temporal change. A more accurate view can be produced by (1) applying temporal interpolation models to observed spatial data rather than derived spatial metrics; (2) expanding the metric of interest's computational equation by replacing the terms relating to the observed spatial data with their temporal interpolation equations; and (3) differentiating the expanded computational equation. This alternative, three-step spatio-temporal analysis technique will be described and justified. The alternative technique will be compared to the conventional approach using common metrics and a sample data set.