Occurrence probability of moderate to large earthquakes in Italy based on new geophysical methods |
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Authors: | Dario Slejko Alessandro Caporali Mark Stirling Salvatore Barba |
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Institution: | 1.Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale,Sgonico (Trieste),Italy;2.University of Padua,Padua,Italy;3.GNS Science,Lower Hutt,New Zealand;4.Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia,Rome,Italy |
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Abstract: | We develop new approaches to calculating 30-year probabilities for occurrence of moderate-to-large earthquakes in Italy. Geodetic
techniques and finite-element modelling, aimed to reproduce a large amount of neotectonic data using thin-shell finite element,
are used to separately calculate the expected seismicity rates inside seismogenic areas (polygons containing mapped faults
and/or suspected or modelled faults). Thirty-year earthquake probabilities obtained from the two approaches show similarities
in most of Italy: the largest probabilities are found in the southern Apennines, where they reach values between 10% and 20%
for earthquakes of M
W ≥ 6.0, and lower than 10% for events with an M
W ≥ 6.5. |
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Keywords: | |
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