凤滩水库降雨预报精度分析及应用研究

由于天气预报有限准确性，给水库电站调度造成不便，使水库效益难以充分发挥。分析凤滩水库流域天气降雨预报精度，研究流域对径流调节能力，探讨预报精度对水库调度决策的影响，探索运用实时降雨预报产品进行水库调度的方法。水库调度决策，暴雨以上注重降雨过程，依据提前5天的降雨预报；大雨注重降雨量值，依据提前4天的降雨预报；中、小雨注重降雨起讫时间，以实际降雨为依据，优化水库水位控制，提高洪水资源利用率，为水库创造可观的效益。

Application of Precipitation Forecast Analysis on Operation of Fengtan Reservoir

Due to the accuracy limitation of precipitation forecast , reservoir power station can＆#39;t operate effectively to create as many economic benefit as possible .The study, therefore, makes an analysis on the accuracy of precipitation forecast for Fengtan to explore the runoff regulation ability of the drainage basin where Fengtan water reservoir locates .Accordingly , the effect of precipita-tion forecast＆#39;s accuracy on reservoir operation is discussed in this paper .Moreover , real-time precipitation forecast productions are applied in reservoir operation .Results show that rainfall process is important when encounter rainstorm , and reservoir operation should according to precipitation forecast for previous five days;rainfall is the key elements when encounter heavy rain and precipi-tation forecast for previous four days is the guidance for reservoir operation ;starting and ending time are important when encounter moderate and light rain , the actual rainfall is most important .The application helps to optimize control of reservoir water leve , in-crease water resource utilization and bring benefits to the reservoir .