黑河流域水-生态-经济发展耦合模型及应用

以系统动力学模型为依据，根据黑河流域生态系统、生产系统和生活系统相互作用形成的水-生态-经济协调发展耦合关系式，建立了黑河流域水-生态-经济协调发展耦合模型；通过动态模拟和综合调试，从众多实验方案中选择生成水-生态保护型发展方案 (WEP)、水-经济高效型发展方案 (WEH)、水-生态-经济协调型发展方案 (WEE) 3种有效方案。认为WEE方案耗水量介于WEP和WEH之间，经济效益和生态环境效益都比较显著，同时兼顾了黑河流域的经济发展目标和生态环境保护目标，虽然单纯从经济发展或生态保护角度分析，不是最好的方案，但从流域可持续发展和建设流域生态经济带的角度分析，却是一个最优化的方案。进而对WEE方案对应的水-生态-经济协调发展趋势做了分析。认为未来30年流域需水总量总体呈缓慢增加趋势，流域用水结构逐步呈合理化方向演变，流域上、中、下游需水总量和结构的动态变化趋势不尽一致，农业用地结构、粮-经-草种植结构和产业结构都不同程度地朝着合理化方向发展，单方水产值及经济效益总体呈显著增加趋势。

The Coupling Model of Water-Ecology-Economy Coordinated Development and Its Application in Heihe River Basin

Based on System Dynamic Model and the interaction of ecology-production-living system, the coupling formula of water-ecology-economy coordinated development is put forward. Then the coupling model of water-ecology-economy coordinated development is set up. With dynamic simulation and synthetical adjustment, three available precepts are chosen from lots of experimental precepts, such as water-ecology protecting precept (WEP), water-high economic benefits precept (WEH), water-ecology-economy coordinated development precept (WEE). The gross of water demand in WEE is between that of WEP and WEH. And it takes both economic development and eco-environment protection into account, so economic and ecological benefits are both obvious. It is not the best project according to economic development or ecological protection respectively, but it is the best choice to the sustainable development and the construction of eco-economic zone in Heihe River Basin. So the conclusion is that WEE is the optimal one. It can satisfy the requirement of the water-distributed plan for Heihe River Basin which is decided by China's State Council, and improve the benefits of water utilization at the same time.