基于ERA5再分析资料的中国近海浅水区域风能潜力评估

风能潜力评估是风电场选址工作的基础工作。本文基于欧洲中期天气预报中心的ERA5再分析数据，采用风功率密度（Wind Power Density，WPD）中值、容量系数（Capacity Factor，CF）以及鲁棒性变异系数（Robust Coefficient of Variation, RCoV）三种指标，对中国近海浅水区域的风能潜力进行评估，研究结果表明:（1）台湾海峡和东海南部风能资源最为丰富并且风能利用率最高，风功率密度中值和容量系数分别为400~900 和0.45~0.7。总体来看，风功率密度中值从渤海到台湾海峡，呈逐渐增加的趋势，从台湾海峡到琼州湾，呈逐渐减小的趋势，容量系数大小分布情况相似。（2）鲁棒性变异系数大小无明显分布规律，广东湛江近岸海域鲁棒性变异系数在0.70~0.75之间，风能发电量最为稳定，但该地区的风能资源丰富程度较低。（3）福州近岸海域不仅有丰富的风能资源和风能利用率，且发电量较为稳定。在不考虑其它因素的影响下，是中国近海浅水区域建设海上风电场的最佳地点。

Assessment of wind energy potential in shallow water offshore China based on ERA5 reanalysis data

Wind energy potential assessment is the basis of wind farm site selection. Based on ERA5 reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the median wind power density (WPD), the capacity factor (Capacity Factor), (CF) and robust coefficient of variation (RCOV) are used to evaluate the wind energy potential of China''s offshore shallow water area. The research results showed that :1) the Taiwan Strait and the southern East China Sea have the most abundant wind energy resources and the highest wind energy utilization rate. The median wind power density and capacity coefficient are 400~900 and 0.45~0.7, respectively. In general, the median wind power density increases gradually from Bohai Sea to Taiwan Strait, and decreases gradually from Taiwan Strait to Qiongzhou Bay. The distribution of capacity coefficient is similar. 2) There is no obvious distribution rule of the robustness coefficient of variation. The robustness coefficient of variation in Zhanjiang coastal area of Guangdong Province is between 0.70 and 0.75, and the wind energy generation is the most stable, but the abundance of wind energy in this area is low. 3) The offshore area of Fuzhou not only have abundant wind energy resources and wind energy utilization rate, but also have stable power generation. Without considering the influence of other factors, it is the best place for the construction of offshore wind farms in China''s offshore shallow water area.