Climate-induced changes in surface runoff on the North-Eurasian plains during the late glacial and Holocene

Abandoned rivers (large paleochannels and meanders) are common on river floodplains and low terraces on the East European and West Siberian plains. They are 10–15 times greater in size than the present-day river channels. The large paleochannels are dated back to 11–15 thousand radiocarbon years B.P. (the Late Glacial period). Based on the hydraulic and morphometric relationships for present-day rivers and the method of paleogeographic analogs, the surface runoff during the Late Glacial period was quantitatively reconstructed by the morphometric parameters of large paleochannels. The reconstructed surface runoff exceeded the present values by 1.4 times on the northern mega-slope of the East European Plain (the Northern Dvina, Mezen, and Pechora river basins), by 2.3 times on its southern mega-slope (the Volga, Don, and Dnepr basins), and twofold in West Siberia (the Ob basin). The large surface runoff volumes can be explained by the landscape and climate conditions, including the high coefficients of runoff (due to the permafrost), the increased proportion (and, conceivably, the amount) of snowfall, and, hence, the respective increased intensity of spring floods. The transformation of large Late-Glacial paleorivers due to climate warming at the beginning of the Holocene is a likely scenario of the surface runoff development within the present-day permafrost zone at the ongoing human-induced climate warming. A general decrease in surface runoff and its more uniform intra-annual distribution would result in the reduced size of rivers in the middle Siberia, Yakutia, and northeastern Russia.