旅游地引力模型研究的回顾与前瞻

本文简要地介绍和总结了国外学者在旅游地引力模型上所作的研究以及作者近年来在这方面的工作和探索,并对引力模型理论发展的可能趋势作了初步的分析。

REVIEW ON THE STUDY OF TOURISM GRAVITY MODELS AND IT’S FUTURE

This article introduces and summarizes the research on tourism gravity models done by foreign scholars as well as the research work in recent years pursued by the author on this subject.Former tourism models made by western tourism geographers are drawn from experiences in the region and have poor theorefical basis, so that the model applied in a specific region,whatever formula or methord used, is not available for other regions.In 1986, I wrote a thesis about tourism macroscopic layout in Japan.In that thesis, by considering a tourism attraction mechanism, a more gerneral gravity model was made.Thus, it provide a new way which helps analyze and study tourism layouts and locations. Further, I advances a new concept, Attraction Field of Tourism Layout.It describs and analysises tne distribution and structure of Attraction Field as well as the reciprocal behavior between the each centre source.The tourism attraction is quite complex, which includes multi——factors ofnature, economy and society.It is too difficult to use a simple factor to explain exactly the reason for tourism attraction.In the part of this article, the writer also makes a tentative analysis on the tendency of the development of the gravity models theory, citing some examples such as.1) The overall study on multi-branches of learning. The tourism gravity models may involve economics (tourism competitive models, threshold models and so on.)2) The randomness and f uzziness of tourism gravity models (applied statistics models, Markov chain models and fuzzy models.)3) Study of systematology (the growth and distribution models of dynamics system, etc.)