Interannual variability of summer monsoon rainfall over Myanmar

Observed summer (May–October) rainfall in Myanmar for the period 1981–2010 was used to investigate the interannual variability of summer monsoon rainfall over Myanmar. Empirical orthogonal function, the sequential Mann-Kendall test, power spectrum analysis, and singular value decomposition (SVD) were deployed in the study. Results from spectral analysis showed that the variability of rainfall over Myanmar exhibits a 2- to 6-year cycle. An abrupt change in rainfall over the country was noted in 1992. There was a notable increasing rainfall trend from 1989. After the sudden change, the mean rainfall increased by 36.1 mm, compared with the mean rainfall before the sudden change, and was associated with a rise in temperature of about 0.2 °C. An increase in heavy rainfall days was observed from the early 1990s to 2010. IOD and ENSO play an important role in the interannual variability of the summer rainfall over Myanmar. The covariability between rainfall over Myanmar and Indian Ocean SST generally suggests that a positive IOD mode is associated with suppressed rainfall in the central and northern parts of Myanmar. During a negative IOD mode, nearly the whole Myanmar experiences enhanced rainfall, which is associated with devastating socioeconomic impacts. The covariability between the rainfall over Myanmar and the sea surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean in the first and second SVD modes was dominated by warming in the east and central Pacific—an El Niño-like pattern—resulting in dry conditions in central Myanmar.