考虑东北航线的亚欧LNG运输发展潜力研究

北极海冰的加速消融为北极航线的开发利用带来了机遇，北极地区的经济价值凸显。北极东北航线为亚欧间的LNG运输提供了新的运输通道。为使亚欧间的LNG运输更为经济合理，基于海运里程和单船必要运费率两方面比较通过北极东北航线、苏伊士运河航线、好望角航线进行跨亚欧LNG运输的经济性。在此基础上，采用负指数网络配流方法计算不同路径的配流比例，研究东北航线的亚欧间LNG运输发展潜力。结果表明，整体而言，采用东北航线进行跨亚欧LNG运输的海运里程更短，单船必要运费率更低，配流比例更高，其中，日本袖浦使用东北航线的经济性最为显著。将跨亚欧LNG运输通道的经济性分析和交通分配相结合，为亚洲地区更为经济合理地进行LNG运输提供参考。

Study on development potential of LNG transportation through the Northern Sea Route between Asia and Europe

The accelerated ablation of Arctic sea ice brings opportunities for the utilization of Arctic routes. The Northern Sea Route provides a new transportation route for LNG transportation between Asia and Europe. In order to evaluate the economic advantage of the LNG transportation through the Northern Sea Route between Asia and Europe, this paper compares it with the trans-Asia-Europe LNG transportation through the Suez Canal route and the Cape of Good Hope route based on the shipping mileage and the required freight rate of a single ship. Based on this, the negative exponent network flow assignment is used to calculate the distribution ratio of different paths, and the development potential of LNG transportation between Asia and Europe. The results show that the overall mileage of the trans-Asia-Europe LNG transportation through the Northern Sea Route is shorter, ane the required freight rate is lower for a single ship, and the distribution ratio is higher, compared with the other two traditional routes. Among them, the economy of Japan's Sodegaura is most significant. This study may provide a reference for more rational LNG transport in Asia.