京津冀地区工业CO2排放测度及其影响因素研究

为探讨京津冀地区工业CO₂排放测度及其影响因素，基于2005—2016年数据对北京、天津、河北和京津冀地区工业能耗CO₂排放的时间变化趋势进行了对比分析，运用地理探测器技术分析能源结构、能耗强度、固定资产投资、轻重工业比值和规模以上工业平均用工人数对京津冀地区工业能耗CO₂排放量的影响作用大小。结果表明：①研究期内京津冀工业碳排放强度均为递减趋势。其中，河北最大，天津次之，北京最小；人均碳排放北京呈递减之势，天津和河北在波动中上升。②京津冀工业煤炭类CO₂排放占总排放量的主导地位是由河北省以煤炭为主的能源结构决定的。③能源结构对京津冀、天津和河北的CO₂排放影响最大，其次是轻重工业比值；北京市规模以上工业从业人数对CO₂排放的影响最大，其次是固定资产投资。

Study on measurement and influencing factors of industrial CO2 emission in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

In order to explore the measurement of industrial CO₂ emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and its influencing factors, the paper analyzed them based on 2005-2016 data. Firstly, the time trends of industrial energy CO₂ emissions in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region were compared and analyzed. And then the geographical detector technology was used to analyze the influence on the CO₂ emissions from industrial energy consumption with energy structure, energy intensity, fixed asset investment, light and heavy industry ratio and the number of employees of industries above designated size in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The result showed that: ① During the study period, the industrial carbon emission intensity of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei was a decreasing trend. Among them, Hebei is the largest, Tianjin is the second, and Beijing is the smallest; per capita carbon emissions are declining in Beijing, and Tianjin and Hebei are rising in fluctuations.② The dominant position of CO₂ emissions from coal types fuel was determined by the energy structure of main coal types for Hebei Province in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei region. ③ The energy structure had the greatest impact on the CO₂ emissions of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Tianjin and Hebei, followed by the ratio of light and heavy industry; the number of employees of industries above designated size in Beijing had the greatest impact on CO₂ emissions, followed by fixed-asset investment. Therefore, it was necessary to adopt differentiated measures for energy conservation and CO₂ reduction for different regions.