10a尺度上新疆塔里木盆地水体动态对气候因子的敏感性检验

在10a尺度上对气候因子波动是否会引起塔里木盆地水体而积波动这一问题进行了验证和分析。利用1992～2001年塔里木盆地的多时相NOAA／AVHRRNDVI数字影像，提取水体信息，反演塔里木盆地近10a来的水体动态变化。结合塔里木盆地25个气象站的降水资料，对塔里木盆地水体的动态与同期降水的关系进行空间相关分析。分析表明。塔里木盆地近10a总的水体动态对于该区域同期气候因子的敏感性不强。该结论侧面证实了近10a来的南疆水体面积动态变化是由典型干早区气候和灌溉农业等因素共同造成的，短期的气候因子波动并不起显著的作用。

Sensitivity Examination on Water Bodies to Climate Factors across Tarim Basin on 10a Scale

This paper discussed the problem whether climate factors motion could lead to the variation of water area across the Tarim Basin on ten years scale. Multi-temporal NOAA/AVHRR NDVI digital images and monthly climate data of 25 standard observatories were obtained from 1992 to 2001 in Tarim Basin. Drawing and interpreting water area information by NDVI digital images and analyzing the relationships between water area and climate factors in temporal and geographic variation, the results show that the general tendency of the variation of water area shows no sensitivity to corresponding period climate factors motion. This conclusion confirm that the correlatives of typical arid climate and irrigating agriculture affect the variation of water area across the Tarim Basin on ten years scale, and short-term climate factors motion do not affect it significantly.