Theoretical Basis and Application of an Analogue- Dynamical Model in the Lorenz System |
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Authors: | REN Hongli CHOU Jifan HUANG Jianping and ZHANG Peiqun |
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Institution: | Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration,
Beijing 100081;
College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000;College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000;College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000;Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration,
Beijing 100081 |
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Abstract: | The theoretical basis and application of an analogue-dynamical model (ADM) in the Lorenz system
is studied. The ADM can effectively combine statistical and dynamical methods in which the small disturbance
of the current initial value superimposed on the historical analogue reference state can be regarded as a
prediction objective. Primary analyses show that under the condition of appending disturbances in model
parameters, the model errors of ADM are much smaller than those of the pure dynamical model (PDM).
The characteristics of predictability on the ADM in the Lorenz system are analyzed in phase space by
conducting case studies and global experiments. The results show that the ADM can quite effectively
reduce prediction errors and prolong the valid time of the prediction in most situations in contrast
to the PDM, but when model errors are considerably small, the latter will be superior to the former.
To overcome such a problem, the multi-reference-state updating can be applied to introduce the
information of multi-analogue and update analogue and can exhibit exciting performance in the ADM. |
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Keywords: | analogue-dynamical model Lorenz system predictability model errors |
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