| 基于前春对流层温度和北大西洋涛动的中国夏季降水统计预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 冯蕾,魏凤英,朱艳峰.基于前春对流层温度和北大西洋涛动的中国夏季降水统计预测模型[J].大气科学,2011,35(5):963-976. |
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| 作者姓名： | 冯蕾 魏凤英 朱艳峰 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室, 北京,100029;中国科学院研究生院, 北京,100049 |
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| 基金项目： | 财政部/科技部公益类行业专项GYHY200706010、 GYHY200906016 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文在分析中国夏季降水典型模态与前期春季对流层中上层温度主要分布类型、北大西洋涛动(简称NAO)之间关系的基础上,提出基于前春对流层温度和NAO的中国夏季降水统计预测模型,并对利用该模型预报的2004～2009年中国160站夏季降水进行检验.结果表明:中国大范围夏季降水多寡主要与5月NAO变化有关,“南多(少)北少(多...
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| 关 键 词： | 对流层温度 北大西洋涛动 中国夏季降水 统计预测模型 |
A Predictive Model for Summer Precipitation over China Based on Upper Tropospheric Temperature and North Atlantic Oscillation in the Preceding Spring |
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| FENG Lei,WEI Fengying,ZHU Yanfeng.A Predictive Model for Summer Precipitation over China Based on Upper Tropospheric Temperature and North Atlantic Oscillation in the Preceding Spring[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2011,35(5):963-976. |
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| Authors: | FENG Lei WEI Fengying ZHU Yanfeng |
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| Institution: | 1.tate Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing,100029;Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing,1000492.Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 1000813.National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081 |
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| Abstract: | Based on the analyses of relationship between summer precipitation and upper tropospheric temperature,North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) in the preceding spring,a statistic predictive model for summer precipitation over China is proposed and the forecast results for years 2004-2009 are tested.The results show that the large scale precipitation over China mainly changes with NAO in May,and the meridional dipole pattern of precipitation is associated with NAO in May and the anomalous cooling during 500 hPa-200 h... |
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| Keywords: | upper tropospheric temperature North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) summer precipitation over China statistic predictive model |
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