Teleconnections: Northern hemisphere lower stratospheric geopotential heights and Indian monsoon rainfall

Summary In this study a search for teleconnection is made between the Northern Hemisphere lower stratospheric geopotential heights and Indian Monsoon Rainfall (IMR) through the correlation analysis approach. Monthly grid-point 50 hPa geopotential height data and the June to September IMR are used for the period 1958–1990.Analysis reveal that there are domains over the Northern Hemisphere where the variation of the geopotential heights during the preceding months of the monsoon period are related with the interannual behaviour of the IMR. During January and February significant positive correlations are seen along the lower latitudes (10°–20° N). However, the maximum relationship is seen during March, with high positive correlations over the Canadian sector and negative correlations over the east Asian sector. The correlation configuration weakens considerably, once the ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) cases are excluded, suggesting that the correlation pattern obtained may be a manifestation of the ENSO cycle. Implications of these results in the long range forecasting of IMR are also discussed.With 5 Figures