Maximum Wind Speed Changes over China

In this study, the maximum wind speed (WS_max) changes across China from 1956 to 2004 were analyzed based on observed station data, and the changes of WS_max for 2046–2065 and 2080–2099 are projected using three global climate models (GFDL_CM2_0, CCCMA_CGCM3, and MRI_CGCM2) that have participated in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). The observed annual and seasonal WS_max and the frequency of gale days showed obvious declining trends. The annual WS_max decreased by approximately 1.46 m s^?1 per decade, and the number of gale days decreased by 3.0 days per decade from 1956 to 2004. The amplitudes of the annual and seasonal WS_max decreases are larger than those of the annual and seasonal average wind speeds (WS_avg). The weakening of the East Asian winter and summer monsoons is the cause for the distinct decreases of both WS_max and WS_avg over the whole China. The decrease of WSmax in the southeast coastal areas of China is related to the reduced intensity of cold waves in China and the decreasing number (and decreasing intensity) of land-falling typhoons originated in the Northwest Pacific Ocean. The global climate models GFDL_CM2_0, MRI_CGCM2, and EBGCM (the ensemble of above mentioned three global climate models) consistently suggest that the annual and seasonal WS_max values will decrease during 2046–2065 and 2080–2099 relative to 1981–2000. The models also suggest that decreases in WS_max for whole China during 2046–2065 and 2080–2099 are related to both the reduced intensity of cold waves and the reduced intensity of the winter monsoon, and the decrease in WS_max in the southeast coastal areas of China is corresponding to the decreasing number of tropical cyclones over the Northwest Pacific Ocean in the summer during the same periods.