Mapping the properties of low-frequency microseisms for seismic hazard assessment

The structure of low-frequency seismic noise in the range of periods from 2 min to 500 min is studied from the data of continuous seismic monitoring at 77 seismic stations of the F-net broadband network in Japan from the beginning of 1997 to May 15, 2012. A new statistical characteristic of seismic noise is suggested, namely, the minimal normalized entropy En of the distribution of squared orthogonal wavelet coefficients. This parameter of seismic noise is analyzed in conjunction with the multifractal statistics—the support width of the singularity spectrum, Δα, and the generalized Hurst exponent, α*, which were extensively used by the author in the previous works for analyzing the low-frequency seismic noise. The method for constructing the maps of spatial distribution of Δα, α*, En, and their aggregated normalized value over the time windows with a given length is proposed. The maps are constructed by averaging the succession of the elementary charts, each of which corresponds to a day of observations. It is shown that, for the islands of Japan, the reduction in Δα and α* and the increase in En outline the area of the forthcoming mega earthquake of March 11, 2011, with M = 9 (Tohoku earthquake). According to the analysis of about a year’s worth of data after this event, the region south of Tokyo (Nankai trough) is still dominated by decreased Δα and α* and increased En. This gives grounds to hypothesize that this region remains at a high level of seismic threat since the accumulated stresses were incompletely released by the Tohoku earthquake. Drawing an analogy to the behavior of the coefficient of correlation between Δα and α*, we may suppose that there is an increased probability of a strong earthquake occurring in the second half of 2013 or the first half of 2014. Constructing the averaged maps of the distributions of seismic noise parameters and their aggregated value in a moving time window is suggested as a new method for dynamical assessment of seismic hazards.