Climatic noise and potential predictability of monthly mean temperature over China

Summary In this paper, based on the data at 162 stations selected over China from 1960 to 1991 the climatic noise and potential predictability of monthly mean temperature have been studied. The method of estimating climatic noise is based on the idea of Yamamoto et al. (1985) and the potential predictability is expressed by the ratio of the estimated inter-annual variation to the estimated natural variation (or climatic noise). Generally the climatic noise of monthly mean temperature increases with latitude and altitude and varies with season. The continental air from Siberia and Mongolia plays a significant role and the ocean acts as an adjustor and a reductor in the climatic noise except for the tropical Pacific ocean in transitional season. The potential predictability is diversified from month to month and one station to another, but generally the monthly mean temperature over China is potentially predictable at statistical significance level 0.10. The results suggest that we could not ask a climate model to predict the climate with satisfactory results worldwide in all seasons and that the regional model could be a hopeful way to predict the climate.With 3 Figures