Confidence bounds on risk assessments for underground nuclear waste repositories |
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Authors: | Gordon Woo |
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Institution: | Principia Mechanica Ltd, 50, Vineyard Path, London SW14 8ET, England |
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Abstract: | The estimation of risk confidence bounds is an important element of a comprehensive probabilistic risk assessment for a radioactive waste repository. Normal distribution bounds may be used in the asymptotic limit of a very large number of Monte Carlo simulations, but sharp skewness of the risk distribution may severely retard the convergence process. The Tchebycheff bounds are parameter-free and may be applied regardless of distribution, save for the finiteness of variance. These bounds may be generally applicable, but they are invariably very broad. Better parameter-free bounds for mean risk are presented here, based on an inequality originally derived by Guttman. |
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