Seismological evidence for the nucleation of two strong earthquakes

The structure of seismicity before the Kronotskii (1997) and Simushir (2006) earthquakes off Russian shores is studied. Different algorithms are applied to the identification of seismic quiescence, seismicity activation, and clustering of seismic events. It is established that the seismic process developed according to the same scenario in both cases. Seismic quiescence arose a few years before an earthquake near the epicenter in an area ～200 km in size. A 100-km area of subsequent activation included the epicenter. The activation stage ended more than one year before an earthquake. An abrupt rise in the number of clusters of seismic events was observed a few days before an earthquake near its epicenter.