新疆三工河绿洲土地利用变化系统动力学仿真

从小区域(乡域)尺度出发,综合考虑人口、经济、技术、市场等主要人文因素对绿洲土地利用变化的驱动作用,建立系统动力学（SD）模型,并以天山北麓三工河流域为例,用1978—1998年的实际数据验证了模型的适用性和可靠性,在此基础上,模拟和分析了三种发展模式下本区域1998—2050年土地利用变化过程,结果表明：SD方法对于乡域尺度的土地利用变化研究是适宜的;三种模式下土地利用变化规律表现出明显的差异性,人口、经济、技术、市场等因素对本区域土地利用变化具有显著驱动作用。

Simulation on Landuse Change in Sangonghe Oasis of Xinjiang by System Dynamics

A system dynamics(SD) model of landuse change based on small regional scale (villages and towns) was established synthetically considering such human driving forces as population, economy, technology and market, etc. The applicability and reliability of the model was proved by the actual data of 1978-1998 from the Sangonghe river at the northern piedmont of the Tianshan Mountains, on the basis of it, the temporal series of landuse change under three developing modes from 1998 to 2050 was simulated and the related driving action was analyzed. The result indicated that ①the SD approach is applicable to simulate landuse change at township scale; ②land use change under three developing modes are obviously different, and the factors of population, economy, technology and market have prominent driving effect on landuse change in the region.