Ceres’ evolution and present state constrained by shape data

We model Ceres’ thermo-physical-chemical evolution by considering a large range of initial conditions as well as various evolutionary scenarios. Models are constrained by available shape measurements, which point to a differentiated interior for Ceres. We address the role played by hydrothermal activity in the long-term evolution of Ceres and especially the evolution of its hydrosphere. We suggest that models with times of formation shorter than about 5 My after the production of calcium-aluminum inclusions are more likely to undergo hydrothermal activity in their early history, which affects Ceres’ long-term thermal evolution. We evaluate the conditions for preserving liquid water inside Ceres, a possibility enhanced by its warm surface temperature and the enrichment of its hydrosphere in a variety of chemical species. However, thermal modeling of the hydrosphere needs to be further investigated. We show that shape data can help constrain the amount of hydrated silicate in the core, and thus the extent of hydrothermal activity in Ceres. We discuss the importance of these results for the Dawn mission’s arrival at Ceres in 2015.