表层海水温度场的正交综合因子场分解预报方法——东海及其外缘海域月平均表层水温预报

表层海水温度预报的途径目前在我国仍以统计预报为主,数值预报和数值动力统计预报尚在探索中.表层海温统计预报一般又分为单要素时间序列预报和多要素相关预报两类.这些方法各有长处和短处,因此在预报实施中,应根据各种方法的特点,互相补充,综合发布预报.我们在应用经验正交函数分析预报表层海水温度场的基础上,也曾对表层海温场的多因子相关预报方法进行了多种试验.

AN EMPIRICAL ORTHOGONAL MULII-FCIORIAL METHOD DESIGNED TO PREDICT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ON THE PREDICTION OF MEAN MONTHLY SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE FOR THE EAST CHINA SEA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS

The present paper gives a regressive predicting method which makes empirical orthogonal component of sea surface temperature field to combine with that of influential complex factors feild.This method considers not only the internal relation of sea surface temperature between the stations of water area,but also the interaction between dependent variables(temperature firld)and independent variables(influential factors field),and therefore the superiority of prediction of physical variahles field is presented in this paper.Through forecasting.practice tested for two yeas.(24 months),it has been -proxed that the predicting mQthod of orthogonal complex factors field ha an advantage over other kinds of multi-factokrial predicting method used at present.Its mean absolute prediction error of the whole area is about 0.49℃.