水稻障碍型冷害损失评估及预测动态模型研究

在分析东北水稻生殖生长关键期低温生理反应的基础上,建立了计算日冷积温(时积温)及其与空壳率关系的模式和敏感期内每日水稻敏感群体数量比率分布标准化模式,进而建立了水稻在生殖生长关键期内因低温影响而导致空壳率及减产率评估、预测模式。该模式可较精确地计算出逐日低温导致的空壳率及减产率,可比成熟期提前25 d左右进行冷害评估和损失预测。

MODEL STUDY ON THE EVALUATION AND FORECAST OF LOSS FOR STERILE-TYPE COOL INJURY IN RICE PLANTS

On the basis of the analysis of the physiological reaction of rice reproduction to low-temperature, several models were developed in the Northeast China. They were the normal model the calculating of daily cool accumulated temperature, the relational model of the accumulated temperature and daily rice sterile rate, the normal probability distribution of the temperatare-sensitive spikelu amount in the rice reproductive growing period, and the model of the evaluation. The forecast of the sterile rate and loss rate in rice plants by the effect of the low-temp eratwre on the rice reproduction was made with these models. The sterile rate and the yield-drop can be calculated 25 days earlier than rice mature by using daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature and several parameters. The method suited for every region of Northeast China.