改进的GM(1,1)模型及其在地下水环境预测中的应用

地下水环境评价和预测是地下水资源规划管理的重要内容之一,地下水环境的评价和预测对促进地下水资源可持续利用具有重要的现实意义。地下水环境评价和预测模型的建立以及在实际中的运用是近年来受到广泛重视的研究领域。本文基于灰色理论、数值积分公式和相邻最近插值构造了一类改进的灰色预测模型,使得灰色预测的基本模型成为特例。以实际地下水环境数据为基础,应用本文构造的几种灰色预测模型进行了预测,并进行了分析比较。计算结果表明,构造出的几种预测模型算法简单、精度较高,比基本灰色预测模型效果更好。

Improvement of GM(1,1) Model and its Application on Groundwater Environments Prediction

Groundwater environment evaluation and prediction,which are very important fields in groundwater resources planning management,contribute to continuable utilization of groundwater resources.Groundwater environment evaluation and prediction methods,especially the establishment of evaluation and prediction models and its applications in reality,has increasingly been attached importance to and studied in recent years.In this paper,some improved Grey prediction models are constructed.Based on the Grey theory,numerical integral and nearest interpolation,which makes the basic Grey prediction model as a special case.Based on the data of groundwater environments,the Grey prediction models of this paper are used to forecast the factors of groundwater environments,and results are analyzed.The computational result shows that the prediction models of this paper are simpler and more accurate than the basic Grey prediction model.