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Fidelity of Regional Climate Model v4.6 in capturing seasonal and subseasonal variability of Indian summer monsoon
Institution:1. K. Banerjee Centre of Atmospheric and Ocean Studies (KBCAOS), Institute of Interdisciplinary Studies, Nehru Science Centre, University of Allahabad, Prayagraj, 211 002, India;2. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Pune, 411 008, India;1. Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change (ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China;2. Joint Innovation Center for Modern Forestry Studies, College of Biology and Environment, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, 210037, China;3. Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY, 12222, USA
Abstract:Climate modeling studies in the context of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) variability have usually been performed on the seasonal and interannual timescales. The present study assesses the fidelity of the Regional Climate Model (RegCM v4.6) in capturing the subseasonal active and break spells along with the seasonal mean rainfall during the ISM season. The model fields are obtained from 24 years (1982–2005) of simulation and validated against the observations and latest reanalyzed ERA5 data products. Our analysis indicates that RegCM v4.6 fairly captures the large scale features of ISM and improvement in seasonal rainfall is noted as compared to its precedent RegCM v4.4. At subseasonal timescales, though the model captures the active and break spells of ISM, the length and frequency of these events seem inconsistent as compared to the observations. Occurrences of breaks and associated circulation features are mostly consistent but the active spells are significantly misconstrued in the model. The dry air intrusion from the western region and lack of monsoon low over the mainland and Bay of Bengal seem to suppress the precipitation in the model. This subseasonal bias might persist due to systematic errors linked to the lack of ocean coupling, inefficiency of land surface and cumulus parameterization schemes in the model. Overall, RegCM v4.6 offers improvements at seasonal timescale but needs further improvements to realistically represent the subseasonal variability of ISM.
Keywords:Indian summer monsoon  RegCM  Active and break spells
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