信息量模型在塌岸灾害风险评价中的应用

塌岸灾害风险与塌岸灾害特点及人类社会经济活动密切相关,其风险评价涉及诸多因素.将信息量法应用于塌岸灾害风险预测库,建立了相关的信息量模型及评价指标;以重庆万州区和平广场地段为例,在三峡水库蓄水条件下,分别对塌岸灾害的危险性、易损性、风险性进行了综合预测研究.研究结果表明,塌岸评价指标选取合理,塌岸高危险性的单元与不良地质现象、库岸侵蚀和库岸类型密切相关;塌岸灾害易损性与人类社会经济活动及不良地质现象相关;塌岸高风险区主要集中在塌岸高危险性及高易损性单元,或受人口、建筑物分布影响的塌岸中等危险性的单元.

Application of Information Model for Reservoir Bank''''s Collapse Hazard Risk Assessment

The risk of reservoir bank collapse hazard is closely related with characteristics of the geological hazards and social economy. The reservoir bank's collapse hazard risk assessment involves in many factors. Information method has been adopted for the assessment. The information model is applied to carry out the reservoir bank's collapse hazard comprehensive assessment of Heping square, Wanzhou, Chongqing. Based on hazard evaluation and vulnerability estimation, the reservoir bank collapse risk after the construction of Three Gorges Reservoir is assessed in the study area. It is shown that the proposed assessment index can reflect the space distribution and social economy risk of the reservoir bank collapse hazard. It is found that the heavy hazard is related to poor geology,reservoir bank's erosion and type of the slope. The high vulnerability is respected to economy and poor geology. The high risk is in the area where the hazard and the vulnerability are high or the hazard is middle but the human activity is periodical.