IMPACT OF THE SOUTHERN OSCILLATION ON THE NORTH AMERICAN SOUTHWEST MONSOON

The intensity and spatial variations in the North American Southwest Monsoon are examined to determine the influence of the Southern Oscillation. Sixty-five years (1920–1984) of July and August monthly precipitation data from Arizona and New Mexico are normalized using a square root transformation, converted into z-scores, and stratified according to onset and following years for Warm Events and Cold Events of the Southern Oscillation. The results for July reveal different spatial patterns in the monsoonal precipitation for the extremes of the Southern Oscillation. Warm-Event onset years are associated with positive precipitation anomalies that decline along a northeast-to-southwest gradient across the study area whereas the Cold-Event onset years produce highest positive values in west-central Arizona and negative values throughout the eastern two-thirds of the study area. Spatial patterns for the August precipitation data do not appear to be influenced by the extremes of the Southern Oscillation. Key words: Southwest Monsoon, Southern Oscillation, Arizona, New Mexico.]