基于多元逐步回归的大型灌区年退水量预测模型研究

对于水资源短缺的西北地区,研究大型引黄灌区退水规律及退水量预测对灌区水资源高效利用和灌区水资源管理具有十分重要的意义。本文利用宁夏青铜峡灌区的实测资料,通过灰色关联分析法研究了宁夏引黄灌区年退水量的影响因素和预测模型,得出影响灌区退水量的主要因素依次为灌溉引水量、地下水位、降水量和蒸发量;建立了灌区退水量的多元逐步回归预测模型,并对青铜峡灌区退水量进行了预测研究,结果表明,该模型具有较高的预测精度,研究成果为灌区水资源高效利用奠定了科学基础。

Research on Annual Water Rejection Forecasting Model of Large-scale Irrigation District Based on Multiple Stepwise Regression

For the northwestern region where water resources are scarce, it is of great significance to study the law of water withdrawal and the prediction of water withdrawal in large-scale Yellow River irrigation districts for the efficient use of water resources in irrigation districts and water resources management in irrigation districts. Based on the measured data of Qingtongxia Irrigation District in Ningxia, the influencing factors and prediction models of annual water withdrawal in Ningxia Yellow River Irrigation District were studied by grey correlation analysis. The main factors affecting the water withdrawal in irrigation area were irrigation water diversion, groundwater level and precipitation. And the amount of evaporation;a multivariate stepwise regression prediction model for the water withdrawal in the irrigation area was established, and the water withdrawal in the Qingtongxia irrigation area was predicted. The results show that the model has high prediction accuracy, and the research results have laid a foundation for the efficient use of water resources in the irrigation area. Scientific basis.