基于联系累积前景理论的基坑支护方案决策

基坑支护方案决策受决策者的风险态度和指标的随机模糊性影响与控制，是一个复杂的不确定性决策难题。应用联系数与累积前景理论的耦合方法，探讨了基坑支护方案的联系累积前景理论优选新模型，即首先基于原始规范化的决策信息确定正、负理想方案，再基于联系数理论定量统一描述待选方案与正、负理想方案间的确定和不确定关系，以构建基于联系前景效用价值函数的综合决策模型，并求解最优的权向量，确定合理的基坑支护方案。实例应用和与其他方法结果对比表明，文中方法应用于基坑支护方案优选是有效可行的，且能定量表达待选方案与理想方案间的联系和转化态势，避免了基坑支护方案决策过程的非理性。

Decision-making model of supporting schemes of foundation pit based on cumulative prospect theory and connection number

The decision-making of retaining schemes of foundation pit is a complex and uncertainty problem since it involves the fuzziness and uncertainty of influenced factors and the risk attitude of decision makers. A novel coupling model using cumulative prospect theory and the connection number is introduced here to determinate the optimal scheme for the foundation pit supporting system. In the model, the positive and negative ideal schemes are first specified from the original and normalized information. And then the set pair analyses are carried out to analyze certainty and uncertainty relationships between proposed schemes and the positive and negative ideal schemes. A prospect value function and a comprehensive decision-making model are described to specify the weight sectors and the optimal scheme. The results from the case study and comparison with other methods show that the proposed model used to select the foundation pit support schemes is effective and feasible. It also enables us to analyze the certainty and uncertainty relationships between proposed schemes and the positive and negative ideal schemes, and transformation trend from a uniform way and avoid the irrationality during the decision-making process.