上海气温与太平洋海温的相关关系及年代际差异

利用上海1873—2001年的冬、夏季平均温度和太平洋海温资料，通过计算两者之间的同期和超前相关以及滑动相关系数，讨论了上海冬（夏）季温度与太平洋海温场相关关系的年代际差异。结果发现，上海冬（夏）季温度存在明显的年代际变化的阶段性特征和总体增暖的趋势，而且与太平洋海温场在不同时间尺度和空间区域的相关关系差异显著，这种相关关系的差异可能是造成用统计方法做短期气候预测产生不确定性的主要原因之一，因此应用太平洋海温场进行统计预报的过程中，适当考虑不同时间尺度上的相关差异，将有利于提高预测的准确性和减少统计预测方法中的不确定性。

Correlations between Temperature in Shanghai and Pacific SST and Their Interdecadal Variations

Correlations between winter/summer temperature in Shanghai and SST in the Pacific areas and their interdecadal variations from 1873 to 2001s have been analyzed in this paper.The results indicate that temperature's interdecadal variations exhibited obvious change in phase and an overall warming trend,and the correlations between Shanghai's temperature and SST in the Pacific areas were significantly different on different time scales and in different areas.The correlation differences on different time scales possibly lead to uncertainties and inaccuracy in the statistical forecasting of short-range climate,using the sea surface temperature in the Pacific ocean as a predictor.The uncertainties can be reduced if the correlation differences on different time scales are considered in statistical forecasting.