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Study on Variation of Fitting Goodness of Relation Between Earthquake Frequency and Magnitude before Moderately Strong Earthquakes (Ms≥5.0)
作者姓名:Li Zhixiong  Zhang Guomin  Fu Zhengxiang  and Zhang YongxianState Seismological Bureau  Beijing  China Center for Analysis and Prediction  SSB  Beijing  China
作者单位:Li Zhixiong,Zhang Guomin,Fu Zhengxiang,and Zhang YongxianState Seismological Bureau,Beijing 100036,China Center for Analysis and Prediction,SSB,Beijing 100036,China
摘    要:In this paper,characteristics of spatial and temporal variation of linear fitting goodness before some moderately strong earthquakes(Ms≥5.0)in the eastern part of China(east of longitude 180)are studied according to the famous Gutenberg-Richter's relation expressed as lgN=a-bM,by using the moderate and small events that occurred in and around the source area.The results show that the linear goodness of fitting varies abnormally prior to these moderately strong earthquakes.In the early stage of the earthquake preparatory process,distribution of the energy released through small events in and around the source area is isostatic and the fitting goodness approximates 1,while the distribution of the energy turns to be isostatic before moderately strong earthquakes,leading to the obvious decrease of the linear goodness of fitting.This phenomenon could be a medium term anomaly and a medium term criterion for moderately strong earthquake prediction.

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