Thermal evolution and shale gas potential estimation of the Wealden and Posidonia Shale in NW‐Germany and the Netherlands: a 3D basin modelling study

Sedimentary basins in NW‐Germany and the Netherlands represent potential targets for shale gas exploration in Europe due to the presence of Cretaceous (Wealden) and Jurassic (Posidonia) marlstones/shales as well as various Carboniferous black shales. In order to assess the regional shale gas prospectivity of this area, a 3D high‐resolution petroleum system model has been compiled and used to reconstruct the source‐rock maturation based on calibrated burial and thermal histories. Different basal heat flow scenarios and accordingly, different high‐resolution scenarios of erosional amount distribution were constructed, incorporating all major uplift events that affected the study area. The model delivers an independent 3D reappraisal of the tectonic and thermal history that controlled the differential geodynamic evolution and provides a high‐resolution image of the maturity distribution and evolution throughout the study area and the different basins. Pressure, temperature and TOC‐dependent gas storage capacity and gas contents of the Posidonia Shale and Wealden were calculated based on experimentally derived Langmuir sorption parameters and newly compiled source‐rock thickness maps indicating shale gas potential of the Lower Saxony Basin, southern Gifhorn Trough and West Netherlands Basin.