Basin and petroleum system modelling of the East Coast Basin,New Zealand: a test of overpressure scenarios in a convergent margin

In the East Coast Basin (ECB), an active convergent margin of the North Island, New Zealand, the smectite‐rich Eocene Wanstead Formation forms an effective regional seal, creating high overpressure in the underlying Cretaceous through Palaeocene units due to disequilibrium compaction. This study examines the evolution of pore pressure and porosity in Hawke Bay of the ECB based on stepwise structural reconstruction of a stratigraphic and structural framework derived from interpretation of a regional two‐dimensional seismic line. This framework is incorporated into a basin and petroleum system model to predict the generation, distribution, and dissipation of overpressure, and examine the influence of faults, erosion, structural thickening, and seal effectiveness of the Wanstead Formation on pore pressure evolution. We find that natural hydraulic fracturing is likely occurring in sub‐Wanstead source rocks, which makes it a favourable setting for potential shale gas plays. We use poroelastic modelling to investigate the impact of horizontal bulk shortening due to tectonic compression on pore pressure and the relative order of principal stresses. We find that shortening modestly increases pore pressure. When 5% or greater shortening occurs, the horizontal stress may approach and exceed vertical stress in the last 4 Myr of the basin's history. Shortening impacts both the magnitude and relative order of principal stresses through geological time. Due to the overpressured nature of the basin, we suggest that subtle changes in stress regime are responsible for the significant changes in structural deformational styles observed, enabling compressional, extensional, and strike‐slip fault regimes to all occur during the tectonic history and, at times, simultaneously.