Can global sensitivity analysis steer the implementation of models for environmental assessments and decision-making? |
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Authors: | S Tarantola N Giglioli J Jesinghaus A Saltelli |
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Institution: | (1) Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen (IPSC), 21020 Ispra, Italy e-mail: stefano.tarantola@jrc.it, IT |
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Abstract: | We illustrate a method of global sensitivity analysis and we test it on a preliminary case study in the field of environmental
assessment to quantify uncertainty importance in poorly-known model parameters and spatially referenced input data. The focus
of the paper is to show how the methodology provides guidance to improve the quality of environmental assessment practices
and decision support systems employed in environmental policy. Global sensitivity analysis, coupled with uncertainty analysis,
is a tool to assess the robustness of decisions, to understand whether the current state of knowledge on input data and parametric
uncertainties is sufficient to enable a decision to be taken. The methodology is applied to a preliminary case study, which
is based on a numerical model that employs GIS-based soil data and expert consultation to evaluate an index that joins environmental
and economic aspects of land depletion. The index is used as a yardstick by decision-makers involved in the planning of highways
to identify the route that minimises the overall impact. |
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Keywords: | : Monte Carlo analysis uncertainty analysis environmental indicators decision support in environmental policy |
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