优化的NSGA-Ⅱ方法在马莲河流域水资源综合管理中的应用研究

根据马莲河流域水资源总量极端贫乏、年际年内分配不均、常规水资源量低、水污染问题较严重等特点,利用系统分析理论和优化技术建立了流域的大系统、多目标水资源优化配置模型,并利用优化的NSGA-Ⅱ方法进行求解,得到流域2020年期望水资源配置下的最佳分配方案为:流域总供水量57 086×104m3,工业供水量21 690×104m3(总产值约为144.6亿元),能源基地供水量4 329×104m3(总产值约为346.32万元),农业供水量20 840×104m3,生活供水量9 452×104m3,生态供水量811×104m3。对比期望方案供水量增加了6 710×104m3,综合缺水率减少了11.41%。并根据预测的流域的分配方案和预测的流域需水量,进行了流域的水资源平衡分析,通过平衡分析的结果进行流域的综合管理研究。2020年在最优水资源分配方案下,工业缺水率3.21%、减少了4.51%;能源基地缺水率0.00%;农业缺水率4.64%、缺水率增加26.17%;生活缺水率0.00%;生态缺水率1.00%、缺水率增加了1.00%。配置方案实现了流域内水资源的最佳分配,使宝贵、有限的水资源产生最大的社会、经济及环境效益,为流域经济、能源产业的快速发展提供水资源保障。

Application of Integrated Water Resources Management Using Optimized NSGA-II Method in Malianhe River Basin

Based on the characteristics that the short water resources in total, uneven distribujtion of interannual and annual water, and serious water pollution in the Malianhe River Basin, a large system and multi-objective water resources optimal allocation model was set up with the theory of system analysis and optimization technology. And the optimal allocation scheme under the expected water allocation conditions in 2020 was obtained using the method of optimized NSGA-II. The results show that the total water supply is 57 086×104 m3 , water supply for industry is 21 690×104m3 (the total output value is about 14.46 billion Yuan), water supply for energy production is 4 329×104m3 (the total output value isabout 3.4632 million Yuan), and water supply for agriculture, domestic and ecology is 20 840×104m3, 9 452×104m3, and 811×104m3 espectively.Comparing the optimal allocation scheme with the expected solutions, the total water supply is increased by 6 710 ×104m3, and the water shortage rate is decreased by 11.41%. Finally, integrated management research was completed according to the results of supply and demand balance analysis. Under the condition of the optimal water allocation scheme for 2020, the industry water shortage rate is 3.21% which is de -creased by 4.51%, energy production base water shortage rate is 0.00%, agriculture water shortage rate is 4.64% which is increased by 26.17%,domestic water shortage rate is 0.00%, and ecology water shortage rate is 1.00% which is increased by 1.00%. The optimal allocation schemeachieved the best water distribution, which made the precious and limited water resources provide maximum social, economic and environmen -tal benefits, and provide water resources supports for the rapid growth of economic and energy industry in the Malianhe River Basin.