软土路基沉降变权重组合S型曲线预测方法研究

通过对软土路基沉降发展规律及其沉降曲线特点进行深入研究，在S型单项预测模型基础上，基于5种S型增长曲线模型，引进组合预测的思想，重点探讨了软土路基沉降发展的预测方法与理论，并建立了软土路基沉降预测的变权重组合S型增长模型，通过数学规划方法求解，从而可根据有限的实测沉降观测数据预测软土路基沉降发展过程。工程实例分析表明，利用该模型与方法得到的预测曲线与实测曲线吻合良好，能够满足工程要求，此外，变权重组合预测模型比其它单项模型具有明显的优越性，为软土路基沉降发展预测提供了一种有效而实用的方法。

Study on variable-weight combination forecasting method of S-type curves for soft clay embankment settlement

Through a thorough study on the settlement development regularity of soft clay embankment and its settlement curve characteristics, based on every single S-type forecasting model and 5 types of S-type curves, and with the idea of combination prediction, a forecasting method and theory for settlement development of soft clay embankments are discussed emphatically; and a variable-weight combination of S-type curves is put forward for forecasting soft clay embankment settlement. Applying the mathematical programming method, the settlement development course of soft clay embankment can be forecasted by limited observed settlement data. The analytical result of engineering practice indicates that the forecasting curve obtained by this model and method can fit well the measured curve, which can meet engineering demand; what’s more, the variable-weight combination forecasting model is obviously superior to other single model so as to provide an effective and practical method for forecasting settlement development of soft clay embankments.