《京都议定书》缔约国履约相关状况及其驱动因素初步分析

基于《联合国气候变化框架公约》和国际能源署的相关数据,评估了《京都议定书》缔约国温室气体减排方面的进展情况。研究发现,受金融危机等经济活动的影响,2008年~2011年期间各国温室气体排放量呈现动态变化的趋势。从国别排放看,伞形国家的碳排放量自1990年始,总体上呈增加的趋势,实现减排目标基本无望;欧盟国家整体完成了8%的减排目标,但各个国家完成情况不尽相同;经济转型国家减排幅度最大。通过能源利用强度和碳排放强度两个指标分析减排力度较大国家的排放轨迹,发现欧盟国家主要通过能源结构的调整(表现为煤炭比重下降和天然气比重上升)和外贸转移排放实现排放强度的降低,而经济转型国家的排放变化主要缘于其经济社会结构的变化。总体来看,缔约国的能源消费结构和利用方式基本稳定,能源利用强度与碳排放强度降低趋缓,在现有能源消费结构下减排潜力有限。

Preliminary analysis on the carbon reduction performance and its driving factors based on the Kyoto protocol goals for Annex I countries

The Kyoto protocol performance progress of Annex I countries was assessed in this paper based on the UNFCCC and IEA database. There are three major types of country in Annex I countries: Umbrella group countries, Euro-pean Union countries, Economic transforming countries. The study found that the carbon emissions from different types of countries show different charac-teristics. Since 1990, the carbon emissions from Umbrella group countries re-mained increasing in all concentrations; The European unity gain a 8% emission abatement targets though the completion status is different in each country;Economic transforming countries achieve maximum cuts in emission. Germany and the UK have a larger extent to achieve carbon reduction. A case study on the two countries showed that the major reason of carbon reduction is the energy structure adjustment (e.g. the proportion of coal falling and the weight of natural gas increasing) and the foreign trade transfer emissions. Intensity of energy use and carbon emission of both EU and economic transforming countries are relatively stable, thus, the potential of emission reduction is limited.