Simple model for long-range forecasts of AT500 hPa level fluctuations

Summary A forecast model to predict the fluctuations of level AT 500 hPa in a selected grid of points is derived. The solution of the compensation equation is sought in the form of a trigonometric polynomial in three idependent variables. It constitutes the basis of a numerical solution of the prediction problem with the use of a high-speed computer. A three-month forecast of the altitude fluctuation of level 500 hPa is evaluated by means of the daily values of the correlation coefficient. The results are satisfactory and the general evaluation shows the model to be prospective.

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¶rt;um nmua ¶rt; ¶rt; na au m AT 500a a uum m m. u au nauu um u¶rt; mu mu nua m m auu n. m u u nmu a¶rt;au a . u¶rt;um a m na au m 500a nu nu m au uuma uu. mam m anumu, u nu ¶rt; n¶rt;mam nnmu.

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List of symbols used * coupling coefficient between two conjugate atmospheric elements - * ageostrophicity coefficient of the atmospheric system - Coriolis' parameter (=2 sin) - , * geographic latitude, geographic longitude - *, geopotential reference and pressure levels - , * compensation and coupling frequencies - integration field over the entire atmospheric system - A** constant (A*=2 ²(*+*)) - A _r ,B _r ,C _r ,D _r constants related to subsystem -r- - A _s ,B _s ,C _s ,D _s constants related to subsystem -s- - B** constant (B**= ⁴(*²+2**)) - C _r constant (i=1, 2, 3, 4) - E _k ,E _v ,E _p energies of the atmospheric system: kinetic, internal and potential - K transformation constant - m total number of generalized frequencies - R(T) frequency characteristics of the numerical band filter - r0(t),r1(t) daily values of the correlation coefficient - Q heat - x, y coordinates in the reference plane - t time - _p ² Laplace's differential operator in thep-system